"In particular, the following use cases remain for native (or virtual machine) device applications:
* Pre-installed applications at the factory.
* Pre-installed applications by the operator or other service-provider (eg RIM)
* Pre-installed applications by the retailer or distributor
* Certain markets are a bit more application-savvy (eg the US, with its history of PDA users), although other markets still view installing (or even thinking about) handset software as a geek-only activity.
* Applications installed by enterprises for their end users
* Applications like VoIP that need access to underlyig device APIs and capabilities like codecs.
* Applications (maybe IMS apps) for which carriers are able to design & enforce a complex over-the-air automated download & install process. Likely to only work in situations where the user has a deeply-customised phone, rather than a 'vanilla' device.
* Games, and even then only by certain demographics.
* End-to-end services coupled to specific devices or a limited range, rather than generic handsets (eg BlackBerry, Amazon Kindle)
Bottom line - I totally agree with Michael that web-based applications are becoming much more important relative to 'installed' mobile apps. But I think it's a little early for the obituary, deeply amusing though it is."